US retail media is racing toward $71B, but almost all the growth is going to two players. Spreading budget thin across niche networks is wasting it.
Retail media is the fastest-growing corner of advertising, and that growth is a trap if you read it wrong. The dollars are not spreading out, they are concentrating.
eMarketer projects US retail media rising past $71 billion in 2026, but two giants together are expected to capture 89% of the incremental spend, with most other networks forecast to stay flat or decline. The draw is first-party data, closed-loop attribution, and high-intent audiences that the big two can actually deliver.
If you sell products, the math increasingly favors going deep where the data and attribution close the loop, not buckshot across niche networks. Treat retail media as a focused bet, measured honestly, not a line item you sprinkle everywhere.
How WebKing runs this
We put your retail media budget where it actually closes the loop, with the targeting and attribution to prove what each dollar returned, instead of scattering spend across networks that cannot show you results.
The two largest retail media networks are capturing 89% of new spending growth, so your money goes furthest where the data and attribution work best. Spreading thin across niche networks wastes budget that could deliver real closed-loop results.
They own first-party data, offer closed-loop attribution, and reach high-intent audiences ready to buy. Smaller networks cannot match that combination, so most are staying flat or declining while the big two capture growth.
Growth exists, but it is concentrating in two players, not spreading out. The opportunity is real only if you focus your spend where the data and measurement actually work, not if you treat it as a line item to scatter everywhere.
Demand honest closed-loop attribution that shows what actually sold as a result of your ads. If a network cannot prove that connection, you are likely wasting money there instead of deploying it where the big players can deliver measurable outcomes.
Sources
The Lab is original analysis by WebKing. We summarize and interpret developments from the sources above for industrial, commercial, and small business owners. Figures are reported as published by their sources.
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